We've created our share of resources on economic hard times — before US tariffs hit. Since then, the cocktail of economic uncertainty has become more complex, which is why we’re following up with a special readout.
We've pulled together expert insights on how to maximize advertising budgets while consumers tighten their wallets, including budget forecasts, shifting channel trends, and what marketers should be doing now.
Economic changes are happening fast, and you might be pulled into meetings about how your advertising team plans to adapt. We're here to arm you with the tools for those difficult conversations.
According to an IAB study, 94% of advertisers are worried about US tariffs. Over half of advertisers expect their budgets to drop by 6–10%.
Even before tariffs were a concern, CMO Survey released a report that marketing budgets are growing slower than usual: 3.3% over 12 months, compared to 5.8% in Fall 2024. Before the tariff announcement, 43.5% of leaders reported decreased spending.
With less budget, brands will be shifting attention toward performance-based channels with clear ROI and better measurement.
Since there's a bigger push to prove ROI, advertisers are planning where to make cuts. Social media is taking the biggest hit:
Meanwhile, channels like search and connected TV (CTV) are less likely to take budget cuts.
With extended sales cycles, brand recall will be more important than ever, which might also contribute to this prioritization for channels associated with brand awareness like CTV and podcasts.
Even with these projected cuts, social media is still expected to grow at a minimum of 1.5% YoY. Many of the channels receiving cuts will still see a small level of growth.
In a scramble to justify channel performance and ad budget, remember that brands who weather the storm need long-term strategies that see beyond the economic hard times.
Our Senior Director of Brand Marketing & PR Courtney Herb put it this way:
"You don’t stop planting seeds just because there’s a storm coming. You double down and tend the roots."
In her latest article, "When the Economy Wobbles, Don’t Cut the Warm Fuzzies," she reminds us that economic fear slashes brand awareness budgets, but this predictable pattern is short-sighted.
In the coming days, you'll need to justify every ad dollar and occasionally stand up to budget scrutiny. Remind your team of the long game: 57% of consumers spend more with brands they’re loyal to. That will help your company come out on top, recession or no.
If you need more facts to back you up, Courtney's article has the data on why brand marketing matters.
You can also take a page from our current playbook:
Daily monitoring of spend patterns to detect emerging trends early.
Regular customer check-ins to understand how and where they are adjusting.
Exploring ways we can support customers as they navigate through this time.
Talking with your customers gives a gauge of whether you should adjust at all. Some verticals are more insulated than others, and your clients may not plan on any major changes — the best way to know is to ask.
Adaptability insulates you from change. Some advertisers won’t be experienced in the recession-proof channels eMarketer noted above — now is the time to learn new skills and tools.
Also, keep a pulse on the news and your teammates up to date. Sharing knowledge ensures everyone has access to the same information to make decisions, preventing miscommunication.
Here’s your first invitation to learn more: TOFU advertising may be challenged when your company wants to see qualified leads pouring in from the bottom of the funnel. Our guide on mastering the marketing funnel could give you the backing you need to justify why TOFU is still important in the long term, even if money is tight.
Everyone would like to know what happens next. Unfortunately, tomorrow is a mystery.
What the past can tell us, however, is that economic hard times come and go. Companies that weather them follow the timeless golden rule of branding: make meaningful connections with customers.
We’ll see you soon for our next content update, because AdRoll will still be here, and so will you.
Last updated on April 17th, 2025.
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